Berg Leads Pomeroy in Recent Poll

Republican Rick Berg has moved past the 50% mark in support against incumbent Democratic Congressman Earl Pomeroy in North Dakota’s race for U.S. House of Representatives.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Berg picking up 52% support to Pomeroy’s 43%. Only two percent (2%) would vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

While the new results are similar to those found March just after Pomeroy's vote for the national health care bill, the race was much closer last month, when Berg held a slim 49% to 45% edge. In February, Berg received 46% support to Pomeroy’s 40%.

Pomeroy was reelected to his ninth term in the House in 2008 with 62% of the vote. Incumbents who earn less than 50% of the vote at this stage of a campaign are viewed as potentially vulnerable. Pomeroy has not been able to garner more than 45% support so far in his match-up with Berg, a Fargo businessman and state representative.

The race is still close among voters in the state not affiliated with either major political party, with Berg picking up 49% of those vote to Pomeroy’s 45%.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Dakota was conducted on May 18-19, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Opposition to the recently-passed health care bill is higher in North Dakota than it is nationally. Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters nationwide favor repeal of the bill, but in North Dakota 64% support repeal. Only 32% oppose repeal. Those numbers include 50% who Strongly Favor repeal and 23% who Strongly Oppose it.

Berg picks up 86% of the vote from those who Strongly Favor repeal of the new health care law, while Pomeroy earns support from 88% of the smaller group who are Strongly Opposed.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) in North Dakota favor passage of an immigration law like Arizona’s in the state, four points higher than the view nationally, while 22% oppose such a law. Another 19% are not sure.

Seventy percent (70%) of those who favor passing that kind of law support Berg, while 86% of those who oppose it back Pomeroy.

Support among North Dakota voters is even higher for the chief provision of the Arizona law: 75% of voters in the state believe a police officer should be required to check the immigration status of anyone stopped for a traffic violation or violation of some other law if he suspects the person might be an illegal immigrant. This result is slightly higher than voter sentiment nationwide.

Berg is viewed Very Favorably by 22% of the state’s voters, while 10% view him Very Unfavorably.

Pomeroy receives Very Favorable marks from 29% of voters and Very Unfavorable reviews from 34%.

At this point in the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers at this point in a campaign.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters in North Dakota do not think President Obama's latest nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court, Elena Kagan, should be confirmed by the Senate, but 31% say she should be. Another 32% are not sure at this point.

Only 29% view Kagan favorably, while 47% view her unfavorably. But another 35% do not know enough about the Supreme Court nominee to form even a soft opinion of her

Sixty percent (60%) believe Americans are overtaxed, which is slightly lower than results found on the national level.

Most voters in North Dakota (57%) say the value of their home is worth more than the amount they still owe on their mortgages. Thirty-eight percent (38%), however, say that’s not the case.

Forty-one percent (41%) of North Dakota voters approve of the way Obama is doing his job, while 57% disapprove, up slightly from a month ago. This earns Obama a slightly worse job approval rating in the state than he gets nationwide in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.